Decoding Trump's Jerusalem announcement

Israel – Palestine conflict has always been the Middle East’s cauldron, but since recent times, this issue was overshadowed by the Arab Spring, ISIL menace, Afghanistan wars and political turmoil in Libya, Iraq, and Iran. However recent events following the U.S President Trump’s announcement has put the Palestinian issue back at the forefront in the Middle East politics.

Briefing in the White House’s diplomatic reception room, President Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel and also unveiled his plan to eventually move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

“Israel is a sovereign nation with the right like any other sovereign nation to determine its own capital;” He further said “Acknowledging this is a fact is a necessary condition for achieving peace."

Jerusalem Embassy Act (JEA) of 1995

It is in fact not President Trump’s original plan to relocate the embassy and recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

In 1995, during the presidency of Bill Clinton, 104th United States Congress drafted the Jerusalem Embassy Act urging the federal government to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, and also, in addition, the act called for the city to remain undivided for it to be announced as Israel’s capital. This act was successfully passed in the Congress by an overwhelming bipartisan majority and again was reaffirmed by a unanimous vote of the Senate early this year.

President Trump following the trajectory of his predecessors for one single time, citing his “obligations to defend America’s national security interests” signed a six-month waiver to stay put the American embassy in Tel Aviv, blocking the JEA.  It was the same legal loophole used by President Trump’s predecessors Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for nearly two decades, signing waivers citing same reasons.

Even though many previous Presidential campaigners including Trump made this as their campaign promise, yet opting waivers, they failed to implement it. Now that President Trump making an official historic announcement has marked a great strategic diversion on Washington’s Middle East policy.

U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a proclamation that the U.S. government will formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Embassy at the city of Jerusalem

The United States would be the first country to have its embassy in Jerusalem since the recent past. Logistically speaking, the actual move of the embassy may take another 3 to 4 years.  

Prior 1980, many countries had their embassies in Jerusalem, Netherlands, Costa Rica, and El Salvador to name a few.  After a series of events in 1980’s, these countries decided to shift their delegations out of the city choosing Tel Aviv. Costa Rica and El Salvador were the last to move out in the year 2006. Now almost every country having diplomatic ties with Israel have their embassies in Tel Aviv. India too maintains its embassy in Tel Aviv.

Speaking of consulates, some countries do maintain one in Jerusalem, including the United States, which has its consul in the western Jerusalem. And a few have it in the eastern part of the city, such as Britain and France, to represent them in the Palestinian territories.

The key question of Jerusalem

In 1947 the United Nations came up with a partition plan which recognized Jerusalem as an “International City”. Which was followed by the Arab-Israeli war in 1948, fought between Israel and a military coalition of Arab states left the city undivided. When the war came to an end, as an armistice a demarcation line (aka Green line) was drawn, whereby Israel took control of the western part of the Jerusalem and Jordan took control of the East Jerusalem. It served as the de facto borders of Israel from 1949 until the six-day war. In 1967 the six-day war broke out between Israel and the neighboring states of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. As a result of the war, Israel captured Gaza strip and the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, the West Bank and the remaining parts Jerusalem from Jordan and the Golan Heights from Syria.

For decades both Israel and Palestine claim this sacred city as their own territory. Though Jerusalem is the seat of Israel’s parliament “Knesset” and their Supreme Court, they sit in the Western Jerusalem, a region Israel has controlled since 1949. The international community recognizes East Jerusalem as an “occupied territory” while some recognize it as a part of Palestine.

Palestine is determined to divide the city and make East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian state, to which the Israelis contest, the present right-wing government of Israel reiterated their position that they won’t consider making negotiations on borders of Jerusalem city.

Now there is almost no other issue in the Middle East as critical as the question of Jerusalem. Starting from the early 90’s till today it has remained as a contentious debate bankrupting peace talks and striking wars in the Middle East.

Choice of words in Trump’s speech that matters

While President Trump spoke of shifting from the “failed strategies of the past” and “delivering” the promise where predecessors failed due to “lacked courage,” his speech was scattered with caveats and slips that muddle the policy shift he is implementing.

This ambiguity and vagueness is widely anticipated to serve as a hedge, one that provides a point of continuity with previous Washington’s Middle East policy, and allows the administration to avoid taking any stand on yet to come controversial implications. “We cannot solve our problems by making the same failed assumptions and repeating the same failed strategies of the past. Old challenges demand new approaches” he said.

Despite his recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, he did not mention an undivided Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which is a, yet vague, signal that Washington would still stand with the plan of possibly dividing Jerusalem on the course of any future peace mediations.

The greatest of all ambiguities in the president’s speech relates to the status of Jerusalem itself. Quoting Trump “Today’s actions — recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and announcing the relocation of our embassy — do not reflect a departure from the strong commitment of the United States to facilitating a lasting peace agreement. The United States continues to take no position on any final status issues. The specific boundaries of Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem are subject to final status negotiations between the parties. The United States is not taking a position on boundaries or borders.”

It is not yet clear on how to reconcile these two statements. With a common understanding, it can be taken for granted that the question of who has the final sovereignty over Jerusalem should still be the subject of final status negotiations. One thing his speech makes us clear is that the U.S has recognized Israeli sovereignty over some part of Jerusalem. Unfortunately, even slight details of geography call a great deal when it comes to Jerusalem.

Consciously or not, President Trump has failed to acknowledge Palestinian claims on Jerusalem, creating them a suspicion on Washington’s neutrality in negotiations. Certainly, he said that the U.S. is not abandoning the two-state solution, at least some room of hope for the Palestinians, but he never addressed the latter’s claims in relation to Jerusalem particularly.

Damage has already been done

Earlier to his announcement, President Trump discussed his plans separately with leaders in the Middle East including PM Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, President Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine, King Abdullah of Jordan, President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi of Egypt, and King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia.

PM Netanyahu extended his support to President Trump’s decision moving their embassy, who grabbed on the occasion to call on other leaders to join President Trump in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. “The President’s decision is an important step towards peace, for there is no peace that doesn’t include Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel,” President Netanyahu said.

Saudi Arabia's King Salman warned President Trump that any such move would provoke Muslims around the world. The Saudi King told to Trump that the decision "would constitute a flagrant provocation of Muslims, all over the world", the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

Mahmoud Abbas "warned of the dangerous consequences such a decision would have to the peace process and to the peace, security, and stability of the region and of the world", King Abdullah of Jordan said the decision would "undermine efforts to resume the peace process" and provoke Muslims. President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt urged President Trump "not to complicate the situation in the region"

Despite the caution President Trump excised while making his announcement, the damage was already done.

Ripple effects following President Trump’s announcement

Soon after Trump made his announcement, the Arab world went into a fury. The decision triggered a wave of protests from Asia, in the Middle East, to the Northern Africa, with thousands of people thronging the streets condemning President Trump’s decision.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey warned that the announcement was a “red line” for Muslims, and such an action could result in Turkey severing diplomatic ties with Israel.

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat said President Trump’s move “disqualified the United States of America to play any role in any peace process.” “President Trump just destroyed any policy of a two-state (solution),” Erakat said in his statement reported in the CNN. “He has taken an action to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This is in total contradiction of agreements signed between Palestinians and Israelis” he added.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said “The Muslim world will undoubtedly stand against this conspiracy and the Zionists will be dealt a heavy blow with this move and dear Palestine will, at last, be liberated without doubt”

Hamas, a Palestinian militant group in the Gaza Strip, called for a third uprising (Intifada) against Israel in response. “Jerusalem is being kidnapped and ripped from us,” Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas said in a speech broadcast by Al Jazeera. He equated Washington’s policy shift as a “declaration of war” on Palestine.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has officially declared East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, and rejected the U.S. stance as "dangerous". OIC also called on the UN to "end the Israeli occupation" of Palestine and declared Trump's administration liable for "all the consequences of not retracting this illegal decision".

France, China, and Pakistan joined the chorus of criticism against President Trump.  As of now, it is clear that President Trump’s decision has aggravated tensions in the Middle East region and in future it may unsettle the prospects for further peace talks that are already on the brink. It is too early to conclude on the magnitude of the coming of President Trump’s decision, better to wait to get how the imminent events unfold.

India unlikely to support U.S. move

India indicated that it was not likely to support President Trump’s decision stating its position on the issue is ‘independent and consistent’ and is not determined by any third country’s stand. “India’s position on Palestine is independent and consistent. It is shaped by our views and interests, and not determined by any third country,” MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said.

MEA’s comment comes at a crucial time, as India is getting ready to host Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is visiting India in January, to mark the 25th anniversary of the establishment diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year made a standalone visit to Israel, unprecedented by an Indian prime minister, which was widely appreciated by many as it opened a new chapter in the bilateral relations.

India has always been a supporter to the Palestinian cause and at the same time balanced its bilateral ties with Israel especially in the defense sector. However, since the right-wing BJP took the power at the center in 2014, bilateral ties between India-Israel have gained positive momentum. 

(This article was published in The Diplomatist Magazine, Print Edition, December 2017 Issue.)