Why did Nitish Kumar quit? What is really going on in Bihar?

Amid the ongoing Political chaos in Bihar, and a boisterous impasse over corruption allegations against deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav, who happens to be RJD chief Lalu Yadav's son, mentioning his "pricked conscience", Nitish Kumar has tendered his resignation as the Bihar chief minister. He met Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi to give his official resignation, saying that the situation wasn't favorable for him to carry on as Bihar CM.

2015 Bihar Assembly Elections

Back in April 2015, the Janata Parivar comprising six prominent parties announced their intention to fight the election united, with Nitish Kumar as their Chief Ministerial candidate. The Janata Parivar was then joined by the INC and the Nationalist Congress Party. This mighty coalition at that time considered to be a formidable alliance, which was reorganized as Mahagatabandhan or Grand Alliance when the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (Secular), Indian National Lok Dal and Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) departed from the Janata Parivar.

On the opposite was the BJP led NDA, which decided to fight the election alongside the Lok Jan Shakti Party, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha.

Followed election saw the highest voter turnout in Bihar assembly polls since 2000, with a 56.8% turnout. The RJD emerged as a single largest party with 80 seats, followed by JD (U) with 71 seats and BJP with 53 seats. But in terms of vote share, BJP came first with 24.4%, followed by RJD with 18.4% and JD (U) with 16.8% and Congress got 6.7%. However, this can be attributed to the fact that BJP's increased vote share is partly because of the more number of the seats it contested compared to other parties including RJD and JD (U). 

 With Amit Shah as the BJP head, and his spearheading maneuvers there was mixed prediction with the opinion polls, Unfortunately, BJP met a shocking defeat at the hands of Lalu-Nitish. And for the INC, this was the first time after the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle had an election result to cheer.

The two sons of RJD chief Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap were also sworn in as ministers. Tejashwi Yadav became Deputy Chief Minister as well. Speaking of the Muslim vote bank in Bihar, it is usually slight peculiar comparing other states, here in Bihar Muslims participate in all kinds of political processes while holding their socio-religious identities. Well, this is not exclusive for Bihar, as Muslims in other parts of India, too, are actively involved in various kinds of politics, but this has some weight here. There were 24 Muslim legislators after 2015 Bihar elections in 243-member, surprisingly all were from the grand alliance, except one who was elected on a CPI-ML ticket. Owaisi's party contested 6 seats in Seemanchal region and lost all of them. Also, the grand alliance gave seats to 33 Muslim candidates in other words to 14% of its total candidates. The BJP fielded only 2 Muslim candidates, both of whom lost. After results were declared, BJP had their lesson that their strategy didn't work in Bihar. 

They had not taken the Bihar defeat well and since then has been waiting and looking for inroads back into Bihar politics, as well as take the sting out of the Lalu-led secular front and the grand alliance. BJP has also been seeking to exploit the Lalu-Nitish rivalry to the hilt.

Turmoil gets intensified further 

Early this month, RJD chief Lalu Yadav and his son deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav was named by the CBI in a corruption case involving illegal properties in Patna and Delhi. Misa Yadav, Lalu Yadav's daughter, wasn't spared as her properties too were searched. 

 Nitish Kumar had then said that he had a "zero tolerance policy" towards corruption. "I did not ask for anyone's resignation," Said Nitish Kumar, "but I told Tejashwi and Lalu that they must explain the charges publicly. Of course, Nitish Kumar, popularly known as "Mr. Clean" took these allegations of corruption seriously.

Apart from this several newspapers reported that Nitish Kumar was equally upset by the flaunting dynasty politics of Lalu Yadav. Nitish Kumar was aware of the rising hand of Lalu Yadav day by day inside the grand alliance. Dialogues started among INC, RJD, and JD (U). Eventually, Lalu Yadav considered to clip Tejashwi's wings a little, and that the INC's top leaders have been in agreement with RJD chief. This compromise was not favorable to the reputed image of Nitish Kumar, all he could do is to step down to save his clean image, as he was unable to contain it.

Earlier when Nitish Kumar decided to back the NDA's presidential candidate Ram Nath Kovind, when he does not seems to have any immediately visible political compulsion, demonstrates once again the age old adage that nobody is a permanent friend or enemy in politics. The opposition parties, especially the RJD, feared that Nitish Kumar is preparing to ditch the Grand Alliance, Lalu Yadav already has aspirations to the 2019 LS elections in hand.

Nitish Kumar is aware that Lalu Yadav has a great vote bank inside the state, among the Yadavs, the poor, and Muslims. Even his conviction in the notorious fodder scam failed to dampen his reputation. And by resigning now Nitish Kumar rattled the foundations of the grand alliance. The INC's top leaders, have attempted mediation with both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav but were unable to broker a compromise.

Reviving an old alliance?

We cannot forget the old alliance of BJP and Nitish Kumar, they had a working chemistry between them. JD (U) formed the government in Bihar twice, 2005 and 2010 with the support of BJP. Nitish Kumar has also openly supported many of PM Modi's plans including the controversial Demonetization drive.  

 Reports by political experts indicate that Nitish Kumar is miffed at the Congress tilting towards Lalu Yadav, even as the BJP-led NDA was seeking to clip Lalu's wings and thereby defang a possible Third Front by taking Nitish Kumar out of the equation.

Together, JDU and BJP has 124 seats in the Assembly, clearly above the halfway mark of 122, with this support Nitish Kumar today again sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar for the sixth time. 

For the BJP eyeing for the 2019 LS Polls, there is no better scenario than Nitish Kumar and JD (U) extending support to it. Probably this has become one of the successful and the most important political strategy in the run-up to the 2019 LS polls. 

With the grand alliance in tatters, questions are raised over its ability to counter the BJP in the 2019 elections, Lalu Yadav must work PLAN B. However, it's not just the past but also the future. We shall see what happens next and in 2019? 

This article for originally written for The Lantern News. Link to original article