"There's many a slip twixt cup and lip" goes an old English proverb, Even though English in origin this proverb proved to work well in Persian too.
After months of painstaking and tough negotiations a nuclear framework agreement was inked in Lausanne between Iran and P5+1 (the UN Security Council’s permanent members plus Germany) to end the nuclear weapon programs of this Islamic republic is definitely a new era of policy in the Middle east with possible and far reaching geopolitical insinuations. A narrow understanding gives a picture that the world powers with a tooth of sanctions have reaped the fruit, but getting deeper inside gives us a notion that the deal is on Iran's favor. As the deal raises many new questions than it unraveling the existing.
Thirdly, the nuclear watchdog IAEA will be given all around admittance to Iran's nuclear facilities and will have vested the power to investigate if any suspicious covert facility comes to its ears. This is one of the most hated aspects by Iran earlier, which is a serious blow to Iran's negotiation terms. Fourthly, Iran will need to convert its so far underground nuclear facility in Fordow into an R&D facility for next 15 years. Finally, if the IAEA attests that Iran is abiding to its commitments agreed on this deal it will get liberation completely forms all the imposed sanctions. But Iran has been insisting that these sanctions must be wiped before it starts winding down the nuclear facilities. But this request was turned down by the world powers.
The geopolitical map of Middle East adds strength to this theory as one clearly can see - Iraq is now ruled by an Iranian proxy. Yemen is also in an advantageous state to Iran as there are likelihoods to do the same of installing a proxy as in Iraq. In the northern and western regions the non-state actors are supported by Iran, for example, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. This deal will give a greater room to revive Iran's aspirations in the Middle East.
Both India and Iran face trouble from the terrorist groups based in Afghan and Pakistan bordering both. These include the Jundullah, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Haqqani network, in turn allied with the al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and even the Pakistan Army. Also Iran and India need a stable Afghanistan as both have interest lies in it. The key benefit to India is that the Chabbar port project can be revived, in which Afghan's interest is also allied. Iran's strategic location is always India's interest and the peace and prosperity there will be an asset to India. India earlier had disregarded the “Statement of Policy” attached to the 2006 Hyde Act enjoining India to sanction and contain Iran for its labors to acquire nuclear weapons. India with no option left made those sanctions on Iran.
Both countries have an annual bilateral trade of about $14 billion, with an extremely high balance of trade problem, as India has been unable to pay Iran about $8.8 billion for oil due to sanctions. India earlier was pressurized by the US to drop its pipeline project (which is now taken by China) and India had to cut its oil imports from Iran which was another serious concern.
As the sanction is to be lifted, it is for sure the west is going to make their entry into Iran to get deals signed and it is a vital for India to enter as early as possible to ink some deals which may reinvigorate the existing India-Iran relations. And these are in the hands of PM Narendra Modi steered government to make them as matter earnestness in the Indian Foreign Policy.
After months of painstaking and tough negotiations a nuclear framework agreement was inked in Lausanne between Iran and P5+1 (the UN Security Council’s permanent members plus Germany) to end the nuclear weapon programs of this Islamic republic is definitely a new era of policy in the Middle east with possible and far reaching geopolitical insinuations. A narrow understanding gives a picture that the world powers with a tooth of sanctions have reaped the fruit, but getting deeper inside gives us a notion that the deal is on Iran's favor. As the deal raises many new questions than it unraveling the existing.
Implications of the agreement
Firstly, Iran would have to reduce the number of installed centrifuges by two thirds, and bring uranium stocks down from 10,000 kg to 300 kg LEU (low-enriched uranium). This number may look significant in arithmetic, but scientifically it does not fully abolish Iran's ability to produce a nuke weapon says experts and Iran will have to run just a single facility at Natanz, where it will use only 6,104 first-generation centrifuges (earlier it was nearly 19,000). Secondly, the time Iran needs to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon—will increase to one year from the current estimated two-three months. In addition, all the excess stockpile of nuclear will be retained in an IAEA monitored unit.
Thirdly, the nuclear watchdog IAEA will be given all around admittance to Iran's nuclear facilities and will have vested the power to investigate if any suspicious covert facility comes to its ears. This is one of the most hated aspects by Iran earlier, which is a serious blow to Iran's negotiation terms. Fourthly, Iran will need to convert its so far underground nuclear facility in Fordow into an R&D facility for next 15 years. Finally, if the IAEA attests that Iran is abiding to its commitments agreed on this deal it will get liberation completely forms all the imposed sanctions. But Iran has been insisting that these sanctions must be wiped before it starts winding down the nuclear facilities. But this request was turned down by the world powers.
Israel’s stand obvious
And it's obvious that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposing this deal as he says "The concessions offered to Iran in Lausanne would ensure a bad deal that would endanger Israel, the Middle East and the peace of the world". This stand of Netanyahu is backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the largest American pro-Israel lobby group.Iran’s Dream not compromised
It seems that Iran has some larger determinations to possess and nuclear is just a part of it. But to get this bigger dream done, it needs two things, first getting a release from all economic sanctions so that it can build a strong economic base, secondly some time to rebuild its wounds and gain some strength for the future. And this deal gives Iran both. As of now due to the imposed sanctions Iran's oil revenues are cut half, its banking system is disconnected from the international system, and the most important is, rial has depreciated by more than two-thirds against the US. With the lifting of sanctions Iran’s economy will be unencumbered and its potential unlocked. As a consequence, Iran will become more self-assured in coming years.The geopolitical map of Middle East adds strength to this theory as one clearly can see - Iraq is now ruled by an Iranian proxy. Yemen is also in an advantageous state to Iran as there are likelihoods to do the same of installing a proxy as in Iraq. In the northern and western regions the non-state actors are supported by Iran, for example, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. This deal will give a greater room to revive Iran's aspirations in the Middle East.
Change in foreign policy of USA
This is an intricate policy, yet some implications can be carved out as we see the US is now willing to revive its ties with Iran, providing evidences are the recent developments in their relations as Barack Obama’s Policy is an okay with Iran even at the cost of its historical allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel. It is safe to say that US is restoring its foreign policy in the middle east as it was before the 1979 revolution in Iran, when Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was the lynchpin of US voice in the region.In fact it was with US efforts Pahlavi was made ruler of Iran. Also the shale gas discovery in the US has some influence on its middle east policy as its dependency on oil has reduced. Now US will need to balance the dogma that arises from this deal with Iran against meeting the interests of Saudi Arabia in the region as US has many joint deeds with Saudi like backing Saudi's military operations in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthis rebels.Repercussions for India
It is clearly explicit that India welfares a lot from this deal as it opens the India-Iran doors back, India openly made a statement welcoming this deal.Both India and Iran face trouble from the terrorist groups based in Afghan and Pakistan bordering both. These include the Jundullah, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Haqqani network, in turn allied with the al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and even the Pakistan Army. Also Iran and India need a stable Afghanistan as both have interest lies in it. The key benefit to India is that the Chabbar port project can be revived, in which Afghan's interest is also allied. Iran's strategic location is always India's interest and the peace and prosperity there will be an asset to India. India earlier had disregarded the “Statement of Policy” attached to the 2006 Hyde Act enjoining India to sanction and contain Iran for its labors to acquire nuclear weapons. India with no option left made those sanctions on Iran.
Both countries have an annual bilateral trade of about $14 billion, with an extremely high balance of trade problem, as India has been unable to pay Iran about $8.8 billion for oil due to sanctions. India earlier was pressurized by the US to drop its pipeline project (which is now taken by China) and India had to cut its oil imports from Iran which was another serious concern.
As the sanction is to be lifted, it is for sure the west is going to make their entry into Iran to get deals signed and it is a vital for India to enter as early as possible to ink some deals which may reinvigorate the existing India-Iran relations. And these are in the hands of PM Narendra Modi steered government to make them as matter earnestness in the Indian Foreign Policy.