PM Narendra Modi's current visit to Central Asia is a strategic and diplomatic move by paving the way to overcome several quandaries that have so far thwarted India's role in this less explored region. This tour of PM Modi is of more significance as there are affirmative signs in Asian Politics as India along with Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran are likely to become full members of the Asia's powerful Shanghai Cooperation Organization unless any brinkmanship situations arise. Also PM Modi will be attending the Ufa Summit of the SCO, after the BRICS Summit. Earlier former PM Manmohan Singh attended the BRICS and SCO summits in Yekaterinburg in 2009, albeit with an Observer status.
India becoming a member is SCO has other dimensions also as China still appears skeptic on India’s stand as PM Modi has not shown much interest for Silk Road initiative of china, Instead India has presented its deep worries for the CPEC in PoK area. As these issues may be the reason for the delay of an SCO membership. Afghan fallout, rising India Pakistan confusions and a growing anti-India voice in India’s north neighbors are some vital reasons that India should not stand outside the arena instead it must join this SCO to check these concerns. At the same time, India could advantage from SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) and also cram from its counter-terror exercises. Being part of the SCO means that opportunity would also open for India to cooperate in soft political areas of the region that it knows little about.
Turning back in history , India had a basket of chances during the Soviet fall in 1991 as India was one of the few nations who had a good access to the central Asian nations; it was quite unfortunate that India made little concrete action. And PM Modi's agenda on visiting them can be assumed that India is now keen to revive and renew its central Asian ties. The status quo is quite apparent as this region is getting de-Europeanized which is bringing a power rivalry. Also adding to this Chinese as well as few extremist groups are gaining control in the central Asian corridors. It also seems that China is pushing its policies interlocking its economic and strategic interests with its immediate central Asia. It is never a hyperbole that China controls the flow of goods and services to and from this region. Moreover as an advantage to these Chinese aspirations, both Russia and USA is not showing much interest in central Asia. On the contrary the Central Asian Countries show huge admiration to China and its New Silk Road initiative; they hope that it would recuperate the legendary Silk Route's ace.
USA at times is being skeptic on Russia’s agenda in Central Asia, but remains mute on China’s drive over this region. In fact, it sees new silk route initiative as not being “mutually exclusive” to US plans for Central Asia and Afghanistan. India too follows US here as it has showed no big concerns in these issues so far. And India in the recent years had put Central Asia at the last in its foreign policy. May be this tour of PM Modi may turn a game changer. As Central Asia will be one of the most crucial for India's security. . If India needs to uphold a strong footprint in Afghanistan, then it is a requisite for India to have a stout attendance in Central Asia. It appears patent that Afghanistan puts more trust in Pakistan than India and this may get worse if India still stands out of central Asia.
Last year PM Modi visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, two countries with resources that are vital for India’s energy security: uranium and oil. Uzbekistan is the nerve center of Central Asia. Worth mentioning here that India and Uzbeks share a cultural contact too as Zahir-ud-Din-Babur came from this region. And of all uranium deals India has made with others, Uzbekistan’s deal is one with the least conditions. Speaking of Kazakhstan, a nation with rich oil reserves but there is this issue of transporting, as India and Kazakhstan lack a direct pipeline route. Tajikistan is also an advantage to India as for a long time India had a military presence in and cooperation with Dushanbe. Also India holds its military stations. And PM Modi’s visit will add further impetus in India-Tajikistan relations. Kyrgyzstan has huge hydropower potential which will reap well if India makes use of it. Also Kyrgyzstan being a democracy stands a plus to India.
Moreover, India face a hindrance to access these nations by road as Pakistan will do its best to mar if India makes any effort so it is in India’s hands that it will need to pacify Iran and revive its Chabahar project so that it will gain an easy access. On the other hand, routing through Iran and Afghanistan or via the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are imperative pursuits, but even the best pursued connectivity and pipeline projects like the IPI and TAPI have not seen the light of day. So far India and these nations enjoy only a government to government talk and trade if these above cited routes are cleared it will increase the trade relations, as India can access Oil and Uranium plus India’s exports may find a potential market. To achieve this robust link India needs to brace a regional economic integration even if it is at the cost of cooperating with China. The yields may turn good in future.
And it is a recognized statement that India and Eurasia shared a common culture and heritage via silk and spice routes in those ancient times and it will be in India’s advantage further it India convalesces those back. Connecting with Central Asia will foster a good economic integration and political unity. In this 21st century security issues are more complicated and intertwined so India will need a well-knit bond with Central Asia. Hope PM Modi’s visit adds a good impetus to India’s aspirations.
India becoming a member is SCO has other dimensions also as China still appears skeptic on India’s stand as PM Modi has not shown much interest for Silk Road initiative of china, Instead India has presented its deep worries for the CPEC in PoK area. As these issues may be the reason for the delay of an SCO membership. Afghan fallout, rising India Pakistan confusions and a growing anti-India voice in India’s north neighbors are some vital reasons that India should not stand outside the arena instead it must join this SCO to check these concerns. At the same time, India could advantage from SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) and also cram from its counter-terror exercises. Being part of the SCO means that opportunity would also open for India to cooperate in soft political areas of the region that it knows little about.
Turning back in history , India had a basket of chances during the Soviet fall in 1991 as India was one of the few nations who had a good access to the central Asian nations; it was quite unfortunate that India made little concrete action. And PM Modi's agenda on visiting them can be assumed that India is now keen to revive and renew its central Asian ties. The status quo is quite apparent as this region is getting de-Europeanized which is bringing a power rivalry. Also adding to this Chinese as well as few extremist groups are gaining control in the central Asian corridors. It also seems that China is pushing its policies interlocking its economic and strategic interests with its immediate central Asia. It is never a hyperbole that China controls the flow of goods and services to and from this region. Moreover as an advantage to these Chinese aspirations, both Russia and USA is not showing much interest in central Asia. On the contrary the Central Asian Countries show huge admiration to China and its New Silk Road initiative; they hope that it would recuperate the legendary Silk Route's ace.
USA at times is being skeptic on Russia’s agenda in Central Asia, but remains mute on China’s drive over this region. In fact, it sees new silk route initiative as not being “mutually exclusive” to US plans for Central Asia and Afghanistan. India too follows US here as it has showed no big concerns in these issues so far. And India in the recent years had put Central Asia at the last in its foreign policy. May be this tour of PM Modi may turn a game changer. As Central Asia will be one of the most crucial for India's security. . If India needs to uphold a strong footprint in Afghanistan, then it is a requisite for India to have a stout attendance in Central Asia. It appears patent that Afghanistan puts more trust in Pakistan than India and this may get worse if India still stands out of central Asia.
Last year PM Modi visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, two countries with resources that are vital for India’s energy security: uranium and oil. Uzbekistan is the nerve center of Central Asia. Worth mentioning here that India and Uzbeks share a cultural contact too as Zahir-ud-Din-Babur came from this region. And of all uranium deals India has made with others, Uzbekistan’s deal is one with the least conditions. Speaking of Kazakhstan, a nation with rich oil reserves but there is this issue of transporting, as India and Kazakhstan lack a direct pipeline route. Tajikistan is also an advantage to India as for a long time India had a military presence in and cooperation with Dushanbe. Also India holds its military stations. And PM Modi’s visit will add further impetus in India-Tajikistan relations. Kyrgyzstan has huge hydropower potential which will reap well if India makes use of it. Also Kyrgyzstan being a democracy stands a plus to India.
Moreover, India face a hindrance to access these nations by road as Pakistan will do its best to mar if India makes any effort so it is in India’s hands that it will need to pacify Iran and revive its Chabahar project so that it will gain an easy access. On the other hand, routing through Iran and Afghanistan or via the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are imperative pursuits, but even the best pursued connectivity and pipeline projects like the IPI and TAPI have not seen the light of day. So far India and these nations enjoy only a government to government talk and trade if these above cited routes are cleared it will increase the trade relations, as India can access Oil and Uranium plus India’s exports may find a potential market. To achieve this robust link India needs to brace a regional economic integration even if it is at the cost of cooperating with China. The yields may turn good in future.
And it is a recognized statement that India and Eurasia shared a common culture and heritage via silk and spice routes in those ancient times and it will be in India’s advantage further it India convalesces those back. Connecting with Central Asia will foster a good economic integration and political unity. In this 21st century security issues are more complicated and intertwined so India will need a well-knit bond with Central Asia. Hope PM Modi’s visit adds a good impetus to India’s aspirations.